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Faculty of Dentistry
Document Details
Document Type
:
Article In Journal
Document Title
:
TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF UNDER FIVE MORTALITY IN ALEXANDRIA
TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF UNDER FIVE MORTALITY IN ALEXANDRIA
Document Language
:
English
Abstract
:
The aim ot this study is to analyze levels, trend and seasonal patterns of under-5 mortality in Alexandria, In order to fulfill this aim. a retrospective study IS conducted to collect recorded data about under-5 deaths and live births from 1996 to 2001 from Health Information Center and CAPMAS in Alexandria. Causes of death are categorized using the ICD-10. Several trend equations were tried to select the best fit trend equation. Seasonality is tested using the 12-month moving average method. The predicted value for under-5 mortality rates for the year 2002 IS calculated using the bestfit trend equation and the seasonal Index and compared to the actual levels to test the validity of the prediction models The study revealed a significant downward trend of U5MR PNMR and CMR while the NMR does not show significant decrease over the study period. The peak seasonal index of U5MRis in December followedby summer months, those of NMR and CMRare in summer and PNMR is mainly in winter. Maximumindex of U5MRdue to ARI is in winter while rates related to congenital malformations are in autumn whiledeaths due to perinatal conditionsare mainly in Mayand June, and external causes of injuryare mainlyin summer. Thoughthe picture is promisingspecial emphasis is still needed for ARI, congenital anomalies and perinatal conditions.
ISSN
:
0307-5133
Journal Name
:
THE JOURNAL OF THE EGYPTIAN
Volume
:
29
Issue Number
:
3
Publishing Year
:
1425 AH
2004 AD
Article Type
:
Article
Added Date
:
Saturday, April 21, 2012
Researchers
Researcher Name (Arabic)
Researcher Name (English)
Researcher Type
Dr Grade
Email
منى حسن
hassan, mona
Researcher
Doctorate
Files
File Name
Type
Description
32925.pdf
pdf
32926.pdf
pdf
32927.pdf
pdf
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